Romney won a decisive victory in Michigan, contrary to my initial expectations, but in keeping with my forecast based on the percentages of Democrats and Independents. McCain's showing was weaker than I expected among Democrats and Independents which leads me to believe that his pull among those voters is not anywhere near what it used to be. This is most likely due to steadfast support of the Iraq War which is incredibly unpopular among Democrats and Independents. Whereas McCain was known for his maverick stance on campaign finance reform in 2000, what is his signature issue now?
In any case, this keeps Romney alive at least through February 5th, but I have seen no evidence of Romney strength in those states. We'll see what he gets out of the Michigan win, but my guess is not much. I see maybe 4-5 points across the board, but that will dissipate as time moves on and as we get a different winner in South Carolina. We shall see.
If I were Romney, I would spend money in SC to get a respectable showing and focus on Florida. Romney plays very well with upper-middle class economic conservatives and there are plenty of them in Florida. He should concentrate on them. With the divisions in the Republican Primary, he might be able to sneak in there.
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Romney's victory will probably not propel him to front runner status. I do think, however, that given the lack of financial security in any of the GOP campaigns - Romney's victory gives him a real shot with his ability to self finance a push on Feb. 5th. I'm not sure I agree with the idea of trying to "make a respectable showing" in SC. I think the best he can hope for is third in SC, but your FLA analysis is spot on. Though, I'm not counting out Rudy G. yet.
I think Romney can get up to 20% in South Carolina, but Florida should be his focus. Rudy continues to lose steam and his voters are a pretty natural fit for Romney or McCain.
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