Why Mike Huckabee Can be the Republican Nominee

A lot of commentators continue with their garbage about how February 5th is a graveyard for Mike Huckabee because of these vaunted "Big States" like New York and California. I am sick of northeastern elitism on this point. This is why my party, the Democrats, continues to lose elections. Let me do a little math for them of likely or probable Mike Huckabee states on February 5th:

Alabama: 48 Delegates
Arkansas: 34 Delegates
Colorado: 46 Delegates
Georgia: 72 Delegates
Minnesota: 41 Delegates
Missouri: 58 Delegates
North Dakota: 26 Delegates
Oklahoma: 41 Delegates
Tennessee: 55 Delegates

The total of this: 421 Delegates
The total of New York(101) and California(173): 274 Delegates

Whoops. How'd that happen? All of the states I gave Huckabee as possibilities have very large Evangelical communities and large rural votes. They are either similar to Iowa(Minnesota and North Dakota) or are very much like it. Colorado and Minnesota have very strong religious conservative votes and they are caucuses meaning the most committed turn out. The southern and mid south states I need not even explain. Illinois and California cannot be ruled out as I explained in an earlier post and neither can Montana. Those sitting in the northeast saying how the "big states" give him no chance don't understand the Republican Party.

The Republicans give more delegates to states that are loyal Republican states than their populations would indicate. For example Missouri has 58 delegates versus New Jersey's 52. Alabama has 48 delegates versus Massachusetts' 43. The Democrats do the same but in reverse giving Massachusetts more delegates than Georgia despite Georgia have about 2 million more people. This needs to be understood when figuring out candidate viability.

Now does Huckabee have a shot at a majority of delegates on February 5th? Probably not. However, he has a good shot at getting the most out of the Republicans running. He might even do better if Romney drops out as he is the next strongest opponent of immigration after Romney. A disgusting position to be sure, but one the Republican Party eats up. McCain will have serious trouble contesting these states against Huckabee. In 2000, he got creamed in Georgia and Missouri in the face of Bush's social conservative alliance. I would fully expect to see that again there and elsewhere in the southern states and Midwest.

McCain is arguably in better position to win Illinois and more moderate Republican states making him an ever so slight favorite for the nomination. Giuliani however, will be competing with him and hurting his chances of consolidating the more moderate and liberal wings of the party. After February 5th, the Republican race gets interesting. On February 9th it moves to Kansas and Louisiana. On the 12th Maryland and Virginia. On the 19th Washington state and Wisconsin(Huckabee only has a shot at Wisconsin of the last four I've mentioned). It may only be decided on March 4th with Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. McCain will easily take the Northeastern states, but Ohio and Texas will be dogfights between the moderate Republicans and the conservatives. Granted, the race might be over by then if Republicans sober up and realize McCain is their best chance to hold the White House, but if the true believers remain true to Huckabee, watch out.