The Michigan Polling Problem

I saw a new MSNBC-McClatchy Poll this morning conducted by the venerable Mason-Dixon polling organization that showed Romney with a decent sized lead in Michigan http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/0113michigangop.pdf of 30-22 over John McCain, but there is a problem there. The poll says that over 70% of the electorate in this open primary will be Republican. This sounds logical on its surface, until you look at the electorate in 2000 when John McCain won Michigan in a shocker of George W. Bush. In that case 51% of the electorate was independents and Democrats. Whoops. That would create a decidedly different result than this poll suggests. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2000/feb2000/prim-f26.shtml

This year, with no competitive primary on the Democratic side, expect a similar number. Now it is true that in 2000 there was no Democratic primary at all, but expect Democratic turnout to be very reduced. What is distressing for Mike Huckabee is that the poll also indicates that Evangelicals might be swamped compared to what he is expecting. The poll shows 46% are Evangelicals while only 27% in 2000 indentified themselves as such.