Post New Hampshire Strategies(Democrats)

Assuming that the results are along the lines of my predictions below, I really am not sure how Hillary truly recovers in time to blunt Obama. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=066ea20c-d300-48cd-a585-cc9c356df4eb She will get creamed in South Carolina as the Survey USA poll shows and Nevada seems like it will follow the lead of the Culinary Workers Union in its caucuses. Everyone talks about Hillary's strength in the February 5th states, but if one looks at the last Field Poll in mid-December you see that her lead was only 14 points. http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2252.pdf

Now 14 points is a good lead under most circumstances, but with how her support has plunged elsewhere, it is now extremely doubtful that has held. I would imagine that lead has entirely disappeared. Elsewhere on Feb.5 there's Illinois, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and others that don't look good for her for varying reasons. Most of the southern states have large African American populations that will likely follow the lead of South Carolina and the general wave of support Obama is riding. Hillary looks strong in New York and New Jersey, but that's about it.

I predict Obama waxes Clinton even more easily than one would expect. Edwards will not be a particularly large factor unless he stays in past a potential Clinton drop out in which case he gets all the non-Obama vote, but that won't be much. Following a Clinton withdrawl, Edwards might get as much as 25% or 30% of the total vote, but Obama will be pulling over 60%.

Hillary's one hope is that something very damaging comes out about Obama between now and then. Other than that, she's finished.

Republicans up next and this one is really fun.