This is going to be a tough one. Polls are all over the place due to the disagreement over the amount of Independents and Democrats that are likely to be involved in the Republican Primary. Some polls put it as low as 30% or 25%. Some, like Zogby, put it more in the area of 50%. I'm going to split the difference and say 40-42%. Just going out on a limb there. Why is this important? McCain has a very favorable standing among Independents and Democrats and Romney has a pretty low one as he generally offends partisan Democrats and liberals, including yours truly.
Romney will win rock-rib Republicans by 10-12 points, but I think McCain trumps him by 17-20% among Democrats and Independents. This will lead to, what I think, is a narrow McCain victory by two or three points. If I had to put numbers on it I would say:
McCain-31%
Romney-29%
Huckabee-19%
Huckabee would have done better than this if he had only had more money as it is clear very few Michigan voters have heard anything about him whereas they know plenty about McCain and Romney.
KEY THING TO WATCH FOR:
****If Independents and Democrats are below 35-36% in the early exit polls it is doubtful McCain will win****
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment