Interesting New National Poll

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/11/2008.poll/index.html

Democrats:
Clinton 49%
Obama 36%
Edwards 12%

Republicans:
McCain 32%
Huckabee 21%
Giuliani 18%
Romney 14%

This is a reflection of the post-New Hampshire political environment. I would say that seeing some state polls both out of Florida and New York that the McCain number seems to make decent sense. However, I have a hard time believing Clinton's lead as a Rasmussen poll and an earlier USA Today poll show them pretty close at around 33-35% depending on the poll, but they were effectively tied.

The poll does suggest that this race is now McCain's to lose and that he really has pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in modern political history. Last summer I gave him no chance of coming back after his stance on immigration killed him. However, this is his to lose now. He is slightly favored in South Carolina and heavily favored in Michigan. A loss in South Carolina to Huckabee or in Michigan to Romney or Huckabee would derail him in a hurry because he actually is not the world's greatest stump campaigner. He is great at working the press and does have great ads.

Romney has to be horribly concerned. Republicans know who he is, but they just don't like him. Same thing goes for Giuliani. It is difficult to figure out exactly how either one hangs on. Huckabee also has to be concerned that he has had a lot of exposure, but hasn't been able to seal the deal. He is encountering a great deal of opposition from establishment Republicans who attack him non-stop including Fred Thompson. He needs to do well in Michigan and win South Carolina.