Well, with Hillary's 6 point win in Nevada, Romney's big win in Nevada, and McCain's narrow win in SC, I had a pretty good night with predictions. I thought Romney would place above Thompson in SC, but that didn't happen so this is the first contest he didn't get a "medal" in. Huckabee is in trouble since he didn't win tonight, though he finished respectably. McCain is now going to enter Florida like a steamroller. Rudy will be lucky to finish third behind him and Romney. After a poor finish I expect Rudy to drop out.
Huckabee will limp on to Feb. 5th and win some of those states. With Thompson likely to drop out I imagine he will do alright in the south, but not well enough. McCain will be the favorite in California, New York, and New Jersey with Rudy out. I also expect him to duke it out with Romney for Connecticut.
With those wins, McCain wins the Republican nomination. I will put up the detailed polling to support this.
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I think your initial reaction to the results are insightful. I expect Rudy to put up a bit more of a fight in Florida than you... but it does appear we are heading towards a "Straight Talk Express" nomination.
The Dems... We'll see if Obama can still take down South Carolina and pull some mo back to his camp. I would be interested to see the Edwards supporters second choice. I have a gut feeling it goes to Obama 60-40 or better... which means if Edwards were to get out of the way after SC next week, it may still be a race.
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