The polling here has thus far shown Hillary Clinton with a fairly solid lead in Nevada ranging from a few points to 9%. However, as this is a caucus and Nevada is not used to it, I am kind of curious as to what happens there. Obama has a couple big union endorsements, particularly the Culinary Workers Union. I think I'm going to give Hillary the edge here, even though she is outgunned organizationally.
My reasoning here is the following. We have seen in the past that union endorsements do not necessarily ensure the support of the union members. Dean and Gephardt proved this in '04 and Edwards has proven this to a great extent this year. Even though caucuses do seem to favor organization over popular support on paper, in practice this rarely seems to be the case. I will take the last Mason-Dixon poll as gospel here and say Hillary wins by 5-6 points. That's slightly narrower than the poll, but I think in keeping with the trends.
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