Post-New Hampshire Strategies(Republicans)

Assuming my prediction is correct, Mitt Romney is in serious trouble going forward. He does have a decent showing in virtually every state going forward, usually into double digits. His problem is that he doesn't have anything more than that. While he polls between 10-17% in Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, etc it is hard to see how he gets up to the 30% that he probably needs in all of those states to win them. He needs a win in New Hampshire and he needs one badly. People aren't impressed by huge personal fortunes alone.

McCain will probably benefit from a very definite resurgence in his fortunes and the confirmation of that from a New Hampshire win. He can move on to Michigan, where he is currently polling in the 18-20% range. I predict his primary competition here will not come from Romney, but from Huckabee. White evangelicals make up 24% of the total electorate: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MI/P/00/epolls.0.html and this means that Huckabee has a fairly large base of support and roughly twice the size of the same community in New Hampshire. Granted, Iowa had a larger base for him, but this is still significant. Huckabee doesn't have the resources to campaign there, but he could nudge out Romney for second place behind McCain.

Romney and McCain both have a decent shot at Nevada. There hasn't been any new polling since McCain's Lazarus movment, but he will probably take Giuliani's place as Romney's chief rival. A Mason-Dixon poll in early December showed Giuliani leading Romney by 5% and Huckabee at 17%. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/1207nv.pdf This shows the possibility of a strong Huckabee showing. Giuliani's support has probably shifted more toward McCain since then mirroring his national collapse.

South Carolina appears to be Huckabee territory. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_republican_primary
There is a huge base of conservative Christian support in the state and regional loyalty helps Huckabee. Thompson is attempting to make a stand there, but the social conservatives that once supported him are likely going to back Huckabee instead as we have seen since Huckabee's November rise. McCain can give him a decent run for his money as the Rasmussen poll shows. Romney has moderate support as well, but that will probably move McCain's direction predominently.

Now, as for Giuliani in Florida on the 29th, Huckabee and Romney both have a good shot at it, though by this point Romney is probably out of it. Giuliani similarly is going to be in rough shape after being out of the discussion for so long. Also, Rudy's favorable numbers have taken serious damage and that does not seem likely to reverse. There is a very strong social conservative vote in Florida, particularly in the panhandle that will break Huckabee's way. Social moderates and economic conservatives are unlikely to be major Huckabee backers and seem more likely to go Romney and McCain's way. Giuliani will be in contention as he has focused on Florida, but this may split the more moderate votes in Florida and allow Huckabee to slip in there with just over 25% of the vote.

Thompson is probably gone before February 5th which is an important factor for my Feb. 5th thesis, which is that Huckabee does very well, contrary to most prognostications. They talk non-stop about California and New York, but there is a dirty little secret: there are a lot of moderate sized southern states up that day too. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri(in terms of how it votes it is southern), and Oklahoma are all voting. These are all very likely Huckabee states as they all have very large Evangelical votes. More than these there are also Colorado and Minnesota, which also have large conservative Christian votes on the Republican side. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MN/P/00/epolls.0.html A full 19% of all Minnesota voters are self-described "white conservative Protestants" and these voters voted 91% for Bush. In a Republican caucus they could be 40-50% of the voters there. Colorado is similar: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/CO/P/00/epolls.0.html.

Suddenly, February 5th looks like a pretty good night for Mike Huckabee. With the strength he might show in the Midwest, do not rule out a decent result in Illinois either. Even more striking was the fact that a poll in December showed him in a strong 2nd place in.....CALIFORNIA!? Yes, it is true http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/12/20/MNFBU1JHP.DTL, and if the Republicans split their vote between McCain, Giuliani, and Romney, Huckabee could slip in there. There are not many strong Christian conservatives out there, only 11% of the total electorate, but with a divided vote and solid support among staunch social conservatives he might even pull that off.

Will Huckabee have a majority of the delegates? Probably not. Giuliani is still fairly certain to take New York and New Jersey. Huckabee isn't worth a spit in Massachusetts and CT or Delaware with McCain and Romney probably splitting those, though Romney is not that strong in MA from what I can gather. North Dakota is hard to tell, but there are a lot of social conservatives there and it is a dreary caucus so that might go to Huckabee too. Utah is an obvious Romney win. Arizona certainly goes for McCain. Montana? No idea, but it doesn't matter too much.

The point of this is that Huckabee has a good shot at the nomination and probably the best shot. The two biggest states are likely to split and Huckabee is very likely to sweep the south with Thompson out of the way. Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, and Alabama are not insignificant states and they do have a lot of delegates with Georgia having more than any state outside of Illinois, California, and New York. A sweep on these states plus Arkansas(that's in the bag for Huckabee) and Oklahoma puts Huckabee in very good shape.

McCain has to try to consolidate moderate conservatives and independents in open primaries with establishment support that fears a Huckabee candidacy. Giuliani has to completely melt to make this work for McCain and this seems very probable. Romney staying in the race following a series of defeats will be weakened, but will siphon off critical establishment support McCain needs to stop Huckabee.

In any case, it should be fun to watch. While I have Democratic leanings, the Republican race is sure to provide fireworks.