West Virginia was one of the most reliable states the Democrats had for many many decades. It even voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988 by nearly 5% while Dukakis lost nationwide by a whopping 8%. In close elections such as 1960 and 1968, it voted for the Democratic candidates by convincing margins. However, in 2000, for the first time since 1972, West Virginia voted more Republican than the nation as a whole and this became even more pronounced in 2004 when the state voted 13% for Bush over Kerry. What happened here? Is the state following the pattern that every other southern state followed and becoming a Republican state?
The presidential trends seen in 2000 and 2004 do not seem to match up with the state trends. West Virginia has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, two of the three House seats belong to the Democrats, and both houses of the state legislature are absolutely dominated by the Democrats. Furthermore, there has been very little errosion in party identification that is usually seen in the other southern states that seem to be lining up increasingly with the Republicans. In 2004, 50% of West Virginians described themselves as Democrats and 32% as Republicans. In 2006, the numbers were virtually idenitical with 51% saying they were Democrats and 32% as Republicans.
The two key demographics that seem to be giving the Democrats trouble in national elections are White Evangelicals and gun-owners, and there is certainly heavy cross-over between these two groups. In both 2004 and 2006, 48% of West Virginians described themselves as White Evangelicals versus 23% nationwide. Along the same lines, 71% of West Virginians polled in 2004 were gun-owners versus 41% nationwide. Among these two demographics, Bush won handily with a 19-point win among gun-owners and 33-point win among White Evangelicals.
However, the shift towards Bush appears to have larger factors at work than just these social criteria. West Virginia voters said by a 16-point margin in 2004 that going to war with Iraq was the right decision versus 6-points nationwide. On this question, Bush carried war supporters by 73-points, roughly in-line with the national spread. With these figures it is evident that West Virginia voters are generally more hawkish on foreign policy than the nation as a whole. What was certainly clear was that West Virginians did not vote based on their economic situation as 61% gave the economy a negative assessment in 2004 versus 52% nationally.
Specifically, some very key counties in the south of the state have shifted toward the Republicans on the presidential level at an alarming rate. The most populous county, Kanawha, flipped Republican for the first time since 1984. However, the largest collapse in the Democratic vote in a county occured in Raleigh County, south of Kanawha. Raleigh County went from voting for Dukakis by nearly 16 points to voting for Bush in 2004 by 22%. This represents one of the most rapid shifts of any county in the country. Similarly, Lincoln County in the south went from even voting for Walter Mondale in 1984 by 10% to voting for Bush in 2004, albeit narrowly. The deterioration of the vote for Democratic candidates in southern West Virginia is a fascinating phenomenon due to the speed of its occurance. It remains to be seen whether or not this trend holds.
Due to the nature of West Virginia's demographics, being 95% white and so heavily culturally conservative, 2008 does not look promising for the Democrats in West Virginia. If the cultural demographics are combined with the apparently more hawkish inclinations of West Virginia voters on national security, there is a potent obstacle in the way of Democrats bringing West Virginia back into their electoral coalition.
