Thursday, March 20, 2008

Democratic Fight Hurting Both Hillary and Obama

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The controversy over Obama's former pastor, Reverend Wright, seems to have had serious effects on racial support for both candidates with Obama only getting 36% of the white vote and Hillary suffering a steep fall in African American support in the fall only getting 55%, which would be the lowest level of black support in a half century for a Democratic presidential candidate. The divide is reflected in state polling as well and it shows particularly troubling news for Obama.

In Kentucky, Obama suffers from a much larger deficit among whites than does Hillary at 43 points versus 12: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46

In Ohio, a 19-point deficit versus even for Clinton: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=32265e32-9fce-4c9e-83e1-509847379601

In Missouri, a 23-point deficit versus 10 for Clinton:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8d367ce2-f928-4f60-b2a1-ce2b97ad6144

What's more is that by disecting the numbers, it's clear that the deterioration is predominantly among white Democrats as Independent and Republican numbers vary little between the two. In West Virginia, Rasmussen conducted a poll that showed Obama with only a 53% favorability rating among Democrats. It is likely this is related to the general problem at hand. We will see in the coming days if Obama's big speech helped this growing problem or not. For Hillary, her problem is that she has very little support left among black Democrats and this seems to be a problem for the fall. In both cases, they have serious problems.