Okay, here's how I see it breaking down:
Safe Clinton:
New York(Hillary by +20)
Oklahoma(Hillary by +18)
Arkansas(??? no polls to go off of, but I'll guess by +20)
Tennessee(Hillary by +14)
Likely Clinton:
New Jersey(I'm ignoring the Zogby poll and going with the preponderance of other evidence, Hillary by +9)
Massachusetts(Hillary by +10)
Arizona(Hillary by +6)
New Mexico(Hillary by +9)
Safe Obama:
Illinois(Obama by +31)
Georgia(Obama by +18)
Utah(Obama by +20)
Kansas(I'm throwing this one out there, but I say Obama by +14)
Likely Obama:
Colorado(Obama by +11)
Idaho(Obama by +10)
Then comes the battleground as I see it.
Toss Ups:
California
Missouri
Alabama
Connecticut
North Dakota
Minnesota
Alaska
I will predict these in the following way:
Minnesota(Obama by +6, liberal activists in the Twin Cities carry the day. Watch for Clinton's strength in the far north.)
Missouri(Hillary by +4, strength in St. Louis county, not the city, is key here)
Connecticut(Hillary by +3, close but the establishment delivers)
North Dakota(Obama by +5)
Alabama(Obama by +4, African American strength comes through for him)
Alaska(Who the heck knows, I'll give it to Obama by +12)
and......
California(Hillary by +6)
I think that California is a notoriously difficult state to poll due to its incredible diversity, however I believe that Hillary's strength among Latinos and seniors will give her the edge in California.
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2 comments:
Interesting analysis, but for the first time -- at least in my memory -- the news cycle may focus on the delegate count more than on who wins what state... Making delegate predictions would be quite arduous, but in CA Hill could win by +6 and still not take home a huge win on delegates. I think you are right about the seniors and latino voters backing Clinton, but I wouldn't discount O's power with the kiddies.
I would not discount the possibility of an Obama win in California. Delegate count will be critical and Obama may well blow her out by much bigger margins in the states like Kansas, Idaho, and Utah. Those don't sound like much, but they balance out the other states. Keep your eyes peeled on Connecticut.
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