Super Tuesday Predictions(Republicans)

All right, let's do this!

Safe McCain:
New York(+27)
New Jersey(+24)
Connecticut(+22)
Illinois(+17)
Arizona(+14)

Likely McCain:
Tennessee(+8)
Missouri(+7)
Oklahoma(+7)

Safe Romney:
Utah(+78, yeah you read that right)
Massachusetts(+22)
Colorado(+16)

Likely Romney:
Montana(+11)

Safe Huckabee:
Arkansas(+20, just a guess)

Toss Ups:
California
Alabama
Georgia
Delaware
Minnesota
North Dakota
Alaska

Here's my best guesses on these:

Georgia(McCain +4)
Alabama(Huckabee +2)
Delaware(McCain +8)
Minnesota(Romney +7)
North Dakota(Romney +18)
Alaska(Romney +23, just because he's probably the only one with anything up there)
California(McCain +5)

In short, McCain wraps the night up. I had to make a lot of these predictions without the benefit of polls. We'll see what happens.

The Potential Fly in my Prediction Ointment

There is no doubt, no doubt at all given the polling data that we are witnessing a late Obama surge. I poo-poo the Zogby polls because they simultaneously show Romney opening up a lead in California and I just don't buy it, but the rest of them do show a clear move to Obama nationally and in several states. The one that gave me religion on this subject was the CNN/Opinion Research Poll http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/national.poll/index.html showing Obama pulling ahead. I will caution that polls taken the weekend before a major election are volatile, but that having been said this correlates with an ABC News/Washington Post survey and a CBS/New York Times survey showing a basically tied race. Only one poll, Rasmussen, shows Clinton gaining.

What does this late surge mean? It means that Obama's margins in the states he's likely to win are probably going to be a little bit larger, Clinton's in her states a little bit smaller, and a couple states at the margins might flip. I'll stand by my predictions with the caveat that there is a large shift in the polling that I might not be fully appreciating.

Good Lord Utah

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,695249479,00.html

This poll shows Romney winning Utah by....are you ready? 84% to 4%. I'll let that sink in. 84% to 4%. That's almost like something out of the Soviet Union or Saddam's Iraq. I'm sorry but numbers like that indicate there is something wrong with our democracy.

Super Tuesday Predictions(Democrats)

Okay, here's how I see it breaking down:

Safe Clinton:
New York(Hillary by +20)
Oklahoma(Hillary by +18)
Arkansas(??? no polls to go off of, but I'll guess by +20)
Tennessee(Hillary by +14)

Likely Clinton:
New Jersey(I'm ignoring the Zogby poll and going with the preponderance of other evidence, Hillary by +9)
Massachusetts(Hillary by +10)
Arizona(Hillary by +6)
New Mexico(Hillary by +9)

Safe Obama:
Illinois(Obama by +31)
Georgia(Obama by +18)
Utah(Obama by +20)
Kansas(I'm throwing this one out there, but I say Obama by +14)

Likely Obama:
Colorado(Obama by +11)
Idaho(Obama by +10)

Then comes the battleground as I see it.

Toss Ups:
California
Missouri
Alabama
Connecticut
North Dakota
Minnesota
Alaska

I will predict these in the following way:

Minnesota(Obama by +6, liberal activists in the Twin Cities carry the day. Watch for Clinton's strength in the far north.)
Missouri(Hillary by +4, strength in St. Louis county, not the city, is key here)
Connecticut(Hillary by +3, close but the establishment delivers)
North Dakota(Obama by +5)
Alabama(Obama by +4, African American strength comes through for him)
Alaska(Who the heck knows, I'll give it to Obama by +12)

and......

California(Hillary by +6)

I think that California is a notoriously difficult state to poll due to its incredible diversity, however I believe that Hillary's strength among Latinos and seniors will give her the edge in California.

Debate Thoughts and other stuff

I think both Hillary and Obama did quite well last night and both made a credible case that they should be the next president. Hillary explained most of her positions quite well with the exception of the Iraq resolution where Wolf Blitzer was correct, though rude, to call her naive for trusting Bush. Obama at times seemed to lose focus, but generally was very much on his game. The agreement between the two last night was more common than the disputes as I think they realize that there is little to be gained by tearing the party apart. Overall, it was one of the best debates I have seen in a long time. I think that's a great potential ticket, but it works better as Clinton/Obama than the other way around. Obama should pick someone with a less dominating personality as his veep if he wins the nomination.

I have to make one adjustment on my Super Tuesday list as I move Connecticut from Clinton's safe category to the Toss-ups. CT polling has tightened up dramatically in this ever volatile season and I will update the full list later.

Republicans, well, McCain is a steamroller at this point. The arch-conservatives are lining up behind Romney to stop him, but it looks like a moderate coup is being pulled off when you look at Arnold's and Rudy's endorsements over the past couple days. We'll see what happens on Super Tuesday, but I'll give McCain New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, and California for sure. I think he splits the southern states with Huckabee. Romney gets Utah, Colorado, and Massachusetts.

McCain wins it. I'm calling it.

The official call isn't in yet, but Miami and Palm Beach have yet to come in in any serious way and McCain is cleaning up in those areas. Miami, Palm Beach, and Broward are three of the biggest Republican vote hauls in the state. Romney barely shows up in any of them. It's done. McCain wins.

South Carolina and Beyond

Obama had a blowout win that surprised all but his most loyal supporters. He more than doubled Hillary Clinton's support, capturing over 55% of the vote in South Carolina. The single most impressive statistic of the night as far as I was concerned was the turnout of 532,468 Democratic voters in the South Carolina Primary. Just for some perspective, this is close to double the 290,000 turnout in 2004, about 100,000 votes more than the Republican turnout the week previously in a state that voted 58-42 for Bush in 2004, and represents 81% of the Democrats who voted in the 2004 general election for John Kerry.

Going forward, we will see what momentum this brings him. I suspect it will be a fairly decent boost, though likely not decisive. I think potentially helpful is the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy this morning in the New York Times.

Florida is not particularly relevant as there is almost no campaign time between now and then and all the focus will probably be on the Republican side where the race is very tight between John McCain and Mitt Romney. That's right, Giuliani is nowhere to be seen and will be going home soon.

February 5th is the big cheese and here's how I see the states lining up as of now:

Safe Clinton:
New York
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Oklahoma

Likely Clinton:
New Jersey
Tennessee
New Mexico
Arkansas
Delaware

Safe Obama:
Illinois

Likely Obama:
Georgia
Alabama(I know the polling doesn't reflect it yet, but given the demographics if they vote anything like South Carolina it's going to be his)
Minnesota

Toss Ups:
California
Idaho
Utah
Kansas
Missouri
Arizona
Alaska
Colorado
North Dakota

Yes, the task for Obama is a little daunting. He has a slight delegate lead at the moment and it won't matter much on February 5th, but he can win some big delegate totals. One thing both Hillary and Obama have going for them is that it is all proportional.