Democratic Fight Hurting Both Hillary and Obama

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The controversy over Obama's former pastor, Reverend Wright, seems to have had serious effects on racial support for both candidates with Obama only getting 36% of the white vote and Hillary suffering a steep fall in African American support in the fall only getting 55%, which would be the lowest level of black support in a half century for a Democratic presidential candidate. The divide is reflected in state polling as well and it shows particularly troubling news for Obama.

In Kentucky, Obama suffers from a much larger deficit among whites than does Hillary at 43 points versus 12: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46

In Ohio, a 19-point deficit versus even for Clinton: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=32265e32-9fce-4c9e-83e1-509847379601

In Missouri, a 23-point deficit versus 10 for Clinton:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8d367ce2-f928-4f60-b2a1-ce2b97ad6144

What's more is that by disecting the numbers, it's clear that the deterioration is predominantly among white Democrats as Independent and Republican numbers vary little between the two. In West Virginia, Rasmussen conducted a poll that showed Obama with only a 53% favorability rating among Democrats. It is likely this is related to the general problem at hand. We will see in the coming days if Obama's big speech helped this growing problem or not. For Hillary, her problem is that she has very little support left among black Democrats and this seems to be a problem for the fall. In both cases, they have serious problems.

State Profile: West Virginia

West Virginia was one of the most reliable states the Democrats had for many many decades. It even voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988 by nearly 5% while Dukakis lost nationwide by a whopping 8%. In close elections such as 1960 and 1968, it voted for the Democratic candidates by convincing margins. However, in 2000, for the first time since 1972, West Virginia voted more Republican than the nation as a whole and this became even more pronounced in 2004 when the state voted 13% for Bush over Kerry. What happened here? Is the state following the pattern that every other southern state followed and becoming a Republican state?

The presidential trends seen in 2000 and 2004 do not seem to match up with the state trends. West Virginia has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, two of the three House seats belong to the Democrats, and both houses of the state legislature are absolutely dominated by the Democrats. Furthermore, there has been very little errosion in party identification that is usually seen in the other southern states that seem to be lining up increasingly with the Republicans. In 2004, 50% of West Virginians described themselves as Democrats and 32% as Republicans. In 2006, the numbers were virtually idenitical with 51% saying they were Democrats and 32% as Republicans.

The two key demographics that seem to be giving the Democrats trouble in national elections are White Evangelicals and gun-owners, and there is certainly heavy cross-over between these two groups. In both 2004 and 2006, 48% of West Virginians described themselves as White Evangelicals versus 23% nationwide. Along the same lines, 71% of West Virginians polled in 2004 were gun-owners versus 41% nationwide. Among these two demographics, Bush won handily with a 19-point win among gun-owners and 33-point win among White Evangelicals.

However, the shift towards Bush appears to have larger factors at work than just these social criteria. West Virginia voters said by a 16-point margin in 2004 that going to war with Iraq was the right decision versus 6-points nationwide. On this question, Bush carried war supporters by 73-points, roughly in-line with the national spread. With these figures it is evident that West Virginia voters are generally more hawkish on foreign policy than the nation as a whole. What was certainly clear was that West Virginians did not vote based on their economic situation as 61% gave the economy a negative assessment in 2004 versus 52% nationally.

Specifically, some very key counties in the south of the state have shifted toward the Republicans on the presidential level at an alarming rate. The most populous county, Kanawha, flipped Republican for the first time since 1984. However, the largest collapse in the Democratic vote in a county occured in Raleigh County, south of Kanawha. Raleigh County went from voting for Dukakis by nearly 16 points to voting for Bush in 2004 by 22%. This represents one of the most rapid shifts of any county in the country. Similarly, Lincoln County in the south went from even voting for Walter Mondale in 1984 by 10% to voting for Bush in 2004, albeit narrowly. The deterioration of the vote for Democratic candidates in southern West Virginia is a fascinating phenomenon due to the speed of its occurance. It remains to be seen whether or not this trend holds.

Due to the nature of West Virginia's demographics, being 95% white and so heavily culturally conservative, 2008 does not look promising for the Democrats in West Virginia. If the cultural demographics are combined with the apparently more hawkish inclinations of West Virginia voters on national security, there is a potent obstacle in the way of Democrats bringing West Virginia back into their electoral coalition.

Setting Up the Battlefield

I believe in establishing the clear lines of battle for the 2008 election as to what states are truly safe for either side before I start analyzing the ones that aren't actually safe. Now this is a projection that takes into account a close election, not a blow out. If it is a blow out, i.e. a win of 6 or more points one way or the other, this does not apply.

Republican Base:
Indiana(11)
Kentucky(8)
North Carolina(15)
South Carolina(8)
Georgia(15)
Alabama(9)
Mississippi(6)
Louisiana(9)
Tennessee(11)
Texas(34)
Oklahoma(7)
Kansas(6)
Nebraska(5)
North Dakota(3)
South Dakota(3)
Montana(3)
Wyoming(3)
Utah(5)
Idaho(3)
Arizona(10, with McCain as the nominee)
Alaska(3)

Total: 178 EVs

Democratic Base:
Vermont(3)
Maine(4)
Massachusetts(12)
Connecticut(7)
Rhode Island(4)
New York(31)
New Jersey(15)
Maryland(10)
Delaware(3)
D.C.(3)
Illinois(21)
California(55)
Washington State(11)
Hawaii(4)

Total: 180 EVs

Well, that leaves a lot of states to analyze. I'll get to it over the next several months.

Iowa Poll: Obama Crushes McCain, McCain beats Clinton

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080224/NEWS09/802240333

Honestly, I thought voters were more partisan than this. The Des Moines Register Poll is simply the gold standard in Iowa polling so I will take its word over anything. The fact Obama is beating McCain by well into double digits in Iowa of all places is very interesting, though it may indicate more of a shift in Iowa than anything. I think these numbers will tighten up considerably as there is still a very solid base of Republican support in the Hawkeye State. Still, there are indications of a surge in Democratic voter registration and Democrats did do very well in 2006 carrying two house seats, winning the open gubernatorial race, and winning seats in the legislature.

I will have to slightly revise my planned analysis of Iowa that I was about to release, but now is on hold.

Okay, I lied, my hiatus wasn't over.

I wish I hadn't been so busy or else I could have given a really good run down of the Wisconsin Primary before it happened. In any case, the Democratic nomination is on the verge of being locked up. Obama is surging in Texas and I suspect we will see similar movement in Ohio. Very telling in the Wisconsin results was the fact that Obama won Brown and Outagamie counties. Those are traditionally home of predominantly working class Democrats and the fact that he could carry those by a similar margin to the state as a whole speaks volumes to how he has managed to dismantle the Clinton Coalition.

Hillary can claim a moral victory with wins in Texas and Ohio, but that's probably about all she can do now. The delegate math simply does not work in her favor. If Michigan and Florida are seated that might be different, but that outcome is not likely.

For the Republicans, despite a couple scares, McCain is clearly on the verge of wrapping up the nomination. He may already be there depending on the math. Huckabee is a likely choice for veep, but look to Texas at Kay Bailey Hutchison as a potential choice. She is conservative enough and brings added appeal to a ticket that is headed by the oldest, whitest guy ever to have a good shot at the presidency. I know Dole was older, but he didn't have a good shot.

Hiatus Almost Over

Sorry I've been gone for a little bit. Lots of school work and preparing an application for the La Follette School of Public Affairs that's due in a matter of weeks. I will start on a series of state by state analyses to set up the playing field for the fall so each state is thoroughly explained in a similar manner to my Virginia post.

As for the Virginia and Maryland primaries, they confirm a definite Obama surge across the country. Hillary needs to make a stand in Wisconsin to avoid being swept away at this point. Anything less than being within 10 points in Wisconsin is not good enough for her to stay in the race. We shall see what happens.

Biggest Loser of the Night: Romney

This guy lost and lost bad. I can't find one state he won that I didn't expect. He spent up to $28 million on those ads prior to Super Tuesday and got creamed. I'm glad Huckabee and McCain got together to do him in in West Virginia. That was terrific.

Romney needed California badly and actually got creamed there largely among the Latino and Asian voters as well as moderates and liberals. His attempt to repackage himself as a conservative just isn't fooling enough people no matter how Rush Limbaugh tries to vouch for him.

I would write more, but I stayed up to 3 watching results so I need some rest. This was the one result I can be happy with for sure.